Mumba Kalifungwa, the Chief Executive of Stanbic Bank Uganda, has urged leaders across government, business and finance to ensure that Uganda’s macroeconomic momentum translates into inclusive and sustainable prosperity as the country prepares for its first oil production.
Speaking at the 5th Stanbic Economic Forum under the theme “Uganda’s Inflection Point: Competing in a Rewired Global Economy,” Kalifungwa described the near completion of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) — now estimated at 97 percent — as the most consequential infrastructure investment in Uganda’s history.
“With an estimated 1.6 billion barrels of recoverable reserves and peak production of 230,000 barrels per day, first oil expected later this year will reshape Uganda’s fiscal position, industrial capability and regional standing,” he said.
Kalifungwa emphasized that the real value of the oil and gas sector lies beyond production figures, pointing to job creation across the value chain, development of local suppliers, skills transfer and long-term national capacity building.
Navigating Global Shifts
He also highlighted global headwinds and emerging opportunities shaping Uganda’s competitiveness, including evolving trade regimes, supply chain realignments, uncertainty around the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), and the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI).
“Africa’s AI market is projected to nearly quadruple by 2030,” Kalifungwa noted. “AI is no longer a distant frontier. The question is not whether Uganda participates, but how inclusively and competitively it does so.”
He reiterated Stanbic’s long-standing commitment to Uganda’s development, noting that for over 35 years the bank has financed infrastructure, supported enterprises and expanded financial inclusion. He cited the bank’s purpose — ‘Uganda is our home, we drive her growth’ — as guiding its focus on enterprise development, climate resilience, infrastructure financing and targeted support for women, youth and farmers.
The forum’s keynote speaker, Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Regions Economic Research at Standard Bank Group, presented a positive macroeconomic outlook.
Following growth of approximately 6.3 percent in FY2024/25, Qureishi projected expansion of between 6.5 and 6.7 percent in FY2025/26, with GDP growth likely approaching or exceeding seven percent in FY2026/27, driven largely by oil-sector investment and sustained public infrastructure spending.
However, he noted that while first oil — expected from late 2026 — marks a historic turning point, the most significant macroeconomic benefits in fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings and balance of payments are likely to become more pronounced closer to 2030, in line with global production ramp-up trends.
Fiscal Discipline and Social Pressures
Qureishi commended the government’s fiscal discipline over the past decade, particularly its decision to avoid premature monetisation of anticipated oil revenues — a move he said has helped preserve macroeconomic stability and investor confidence.
At the same time, he cautioned that strong headline growth does not automatically translate into improved household welfare.
Capital-intensive investments, a large informal sector, post-COVID-19 inflation shocks and fiscal adjustments supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have contributed to a widening gap between economic performance and lived realities.
“The challenge we face is increasingly about asset holders versus non-asset holders,” he warned, noting that unresolved economic disparities can quickly evolve into social and political pressures.
Strengthened External Position
On the external front, Qureishi highlighted a sharp recovery in Uganda’s foreign exchange position, with gross reserves rising from approximately USD 3 billion at the end of 2024 to nearly USD 6 billion by December 2025, strengthening import cover and reflecting improvements in the balance of payments.
Now in its fifth year, the Stanbic Economic Forum continues to convene policymakers, private sector leaders and economic experts to assess Uganda’s development trajectory and policy priorities.
This year’s discussions focused on strengthening competitiveness and unlocking sustainable growth in an increasingly complex global economy.